Red State, Blue State, TV View State

by jdeeth, Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 09:32:44 PM EST

We saw lots and lots of maps after the 2004 election: red and blue states, red and blue counties, The United States of Canada and Jesusland.  But here's one I never saw:

This is the Nielsen Designated Market Area (DMA) map.

While DMAs cross state lines, they are divided along county lines, so it's possible to calculate demographics AND election results for each.  But has anyone done so?  Here are some questions to ask:

  • what percentage of each state is in a given DMA
  • how much of a DMA spills over into another state
  • DMAs that overlap swing states vs. safe states.

    A couple strategic visits, a little ad buy could make a difference in a small state.

    • Without running the numbers, look at, say, the Fargo, North Dakota market.  North Dakota is pretty dark red, and too small to be worth the fight.  But that one media market covers a vast majority of the state's population.  The added bonus that really makes the case is that a huge chunk of the media market spills over into increasingly close Minnesota.

    Consider this journey south from Fargo:

  • Sioux Falls: South Dakota probably hasn't seen a Democratic nominee since George McGovern went home to vote.  But the overwhelming majority of the state population is in one TV market, that spills over into Minnesota (though not as much as Fargo) and a tiny, albiet extremely conservative, piece of Iowa.
  • Omaha: Western Nebraska is so overwhelmingly GOP that the state could never flip.  But there's that weird congressional district electoral vote thing.  With a little work you could try for one electoral vote in Omaha's CD, while the western third of Iowa watches.
  • Eastern Kansas: they'd certainly notice the visit in Kansas City, Missouri.

    Twelve electoral votes in the Dakotas and Kansas, plus the one in Omaha.  But the real target is the 28 votes of Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri - and on another level, small town and rural voters in other competitive states.  We end our journey there; Oklahoma is hopeless and Tulsa doesn't spill over into Missouri.  But there may be other such journeys.  Consider the Idaho Panhandle, in the Spokane, Washington TV market and next to Montana.  It's not impossible to imagine winning Montana - just ask their Democratic governor.

    The clincher: In addition to the wall-to-wall local live at 5, you'd get national coverage with a dog-bites-man twist.  By going to a place like Fargo or Couer d'Alene, even if the state stays non-competitive, the candidate creates the impression that they're fighting for every vote in every state.

    (See my site for a slightly extended version.)



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